It’s been a furious few months with reporters on the topic
of churches and the economy. It started in December 2008 when some churches
were worried about their year-end giving. I stated then that I felt we would
see record giving for EXTERNAL projects during the Christmas season but if the
focus was internal, churches would come up short. So far, so good on that
prediction.
But what about now. Here we stand at the end of the first
quarter. The general
U.S.
economy is still technically in recession. How are the churches responding?
My database of conversations comes from larger, growing
churches. Those are the types Leadership Network helps to connect, so that is
my primary world.
I also have seen multiple data studies, including our own by
Dr. Warren Bird on the Economic Outlook of 555 Executive Pastors (due to be
released in April) as well as surveys by my friend Ed Stetzer and his team at
LifeWay Research, among others. (F
Reporter
conversations
Here is the bullet point version of my discussions with
reporters. It usually begins with the statement by the reporter “Megachurches
are having a tough time aren’t they?”
And my answer is “no.”
“That’s not what I am reading” says the reporter.
“I understand, but news stories are bad news more than good
news.”
Myth 1: Lots of megachurches are in foreclosure.
Nope. As far as I can tell there are probably one to two
dozen churches (including the megachurches) that I have seen in news reports
around the country that are in foreclosure. Most of these do not meet the mega threshold
(2,000 or more weekend attenders). Some had overextended themselves
financially.
Among true megachurches all cases I have seen in news
reports have a lead pastor going through marital difficulties/divorce/or other
leadership issue unrelated to the economy.
Myth 2: Offerings are way off in megachurches.
Nope. As far as we can tell money is coming in fairly well
in the first quarter. Some regions of the country are being hard hit. Mostly
the “sand” states (FL, AZ, NV, CA). Warren Bird outlines that in the upcoming
LN Report.
But most churches report fairly strong first quarter giving
when compared to last year.
Myth 3: Lots of staff cuts at megachurches.
A few fairly prominent churches have had some lay offs. Many
have hiring freezes. But context is very important here.
First, I had conversations in early 2008 with lots of Lead
and Executive Pastors who said they had planned for little staff and budget
growth in 2008. So they were bracing for a recession then and had adjusted
their staffing and budgets.
Second, I do know that in early/mid 2008 leaders began
making contingency plans for reductions along with some strategic rethinking in
the role and size of their staffs. As it became necessary, some cuts were made.
Third, though overwhelmingly there have been no cuts in most
of the churches. There may be salary freezes and some other creative solutions,
but fewer staff cuts than the doom and gloomers have reported.
Job losses are always hard and I don’t want to minimize
anyone’s experience. I spoke to a leader recently who did have to cut between
five and ten staff in January. Fortunately half had found other good placements
within a few months.
Myth 4: A sense of foreboding among megachurch leaders on
2009 giving.
I think there was a sense of “what is going to happen?” and
some increased heartburn from September 2008 until January 2009. The focus
seemed to be on the year-end numbers.
In January, when leaders saw that the world didn’t end, the
turn was rapid. Now the focus is on “What are the opportunities presenting
themselves to us?” I will blog more on that later. Please watch for
that.
Myth 5: This is hitting the small church hard.
Depends. That is not my world so much but here’s the
situation.
Not a lot of small churches have mortgages or debt. If it’s
a single staff church, they operate more like family and they find a way to
survive.
The mid sized church, say 200-800 range in worship is having
a tougher time.
Look at it this way.
A single staff church or small staff (pastor plus a part
time secretary and others) finds a way to make it work. Probably keeps them
all.
A megachurch that lays off 5 staff members out of 55 staff
loses 10% of staff capacity.
But a mid sized church with a staff of 7 or 8 that loses 2
or 3 loses a much greater percentage of capacity and usually relationships.
Another way to look at it relationally.
A small church is bound by relationships between each other.
The pastor is secondary.
The megachurch usually has lots of interlocking
relationships between each other and multiple staff leaders.
But a mid sized church, while having good relationships with
each other also has strong relationships to one staff member and that loss is
felt hard.
So, as in the rest of our society, the mid-sized
organizations are the hardest hit.
To close this long post, I would say that as in past
downturns, giving to local congregations is one of the last things to suffer.
People give where their heart is. I can’t remember exactly who said that, but I
think he was an important guy.
Dave Travis is the Managing
Director of Leadership Network.
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